Lebanon, Tennessee 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

487
FXUS64 KOHX 252303
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
603 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 558 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

- Dangerous heat will continue through Friday as heat index
  values reach into the triple digits each day.

- Rain chances will gradually increase late this week and
  especially this weekend.

- Temperatures will taper off closer to seasonal normals next
  week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 545 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Isolated storms have been affecting Middle Tennessee this
afternoon with about the same coverage as what we saw yesterday.
The atmosphere today is highly unstable with better lapse rates
than previous days. So the few storms that have developed have
shown some impressive cores resulting from very strong updrafts.
Several Special Weather Statements and one warning have been
issued thus far. We do expect the storms to diminish by sunset.
Tomorrow we are expecting more coverage than today, owing mainly
to the surface and upper high over Middle Tennessee starting to
break down. This will result in slightly higher precipitable
water values and also less subsidence. So, although instability
parameters anticipated by tomorrow afternoon aren`t quite as
impressive as today`s, we nonetheless expect greater coverage. For
this reason, a significant portion of Middle Tennessee to the
east and south of Nashville has been included in a marginal risk
of severe storms for tomorrow, with damaging winds being the
primary threat.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 1115 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Late Wednesday morning temps were already in the lower to mid 90s
for many areas of Middle TN with heat index values in the triples.
It is going to be a scorching afternoon. We are at the peak of
this heat wave; thankfully things will get better from here.

Like yesterday, we can expect a couple of storms to break through
an otherwise capped atmosphere this afternoon. Short range models
are pointing to areas east of I-65 for today`s development. Any
of these very localized storms could contain very heavy downpours
and wind gusts over 40 mph along with the typical but underrated
hazard of lightning. Move to shelter when a storm builds or you
hear thunder.

The upper ridge will start to weaken slightly Thursday. This will
allow moisture depth to increase and capping to lessen, so a few
showers and storms will dot the entire area Thursday afternoon
and evening (20 to 30 percent coverage). The heat will continue to
be in danger territory, but the numbers will back off a degree or
2.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1115 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

We will keep the Heat Advisory going through Friday, but some
lucky locations will stay under triple digit HX values as the
upper ridge continues to slowly break down. Coverage of scattered
showers and storms will increase into the 30 to 50 percent range.

Heat will continue to back off and shower / thunderstorm coverage
will increase through the weekend as the influence of the upper
ridge continues to fade. Conditions will still be plenty warm and
humid, but nothing unusual for late June. Medium to high rain
chances will occur each afternoon and evening this weekend. Look
for the soupy, unsettled pattern to continue into Monday and
Tuesday as well.

A shortwave passage next Tuesday or Wednesday will bring a trend
toward lower rain chances and near normal temperatures as we head
toward Independence Day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 558 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Isolated thunderstorms ongoing this afternoon will taper off after
sunset. There is a low chance for patchy fog overnight and into
early Thursday morning with confidence highest at KSRB and KCSV
due to rainfall earlier today. Additional storms develop Thursday
afternoon with coverage favoring the Plateau. So included a PROB30
group at KSRB and KCSV accordingly for now. Otherwise, light and
variable winds continue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      76  97  75  94 /   0  20  20  30
Clarksville    75  95  74  93 /   0  20  20  20
Crossville     69  90  68  87 /  10  30  20  60
Columbia       74  95  72  93 /   0  20  20  40
Cookeville     71  91  71  88 /  10  20  20  50
Jamestown      70  91  69  88 /  10  30  20  50
Lawrenceburg   73  94  72  91 /  10  30  20  40
Murfreesboro   74  96  73  93 /   0  20  20  40
Waverly        73  93  72  93 /   0  20  20  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for TNZ005>011-023>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......Rose
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....Clements